TCK is giving us a real nice entry here with risk defined. Previous resistance put in on the January highs and March highs finally gave way when the stock broke out late March. This stock has been trading in a nice upward channel and has now pulled back to previous resistance area which now looks to be acting as support, also the bottom of the uptrend channel offers support along with the 50 day moving average. With that being said I have added a position in this name today with a stop set at $40 for now. I will look for a push to $46.50 and then $50 to $52, market participating of course. This company is based in Vancouver, BC and is engaged in mining, exploration, development, processing, smelting and refining. Its major products are metallurgical coal, copper and zinc. The Company also produces precious metals, lead, molybdenum, electrical power, fertilizers and various specialty metals. Metal products are sold as refined metals or concentrates. It also owns an interest in certain oil sands leases, and has a partnership interest in an oil sands development project. TCK is involved in copper, coal, zinc, and energy. I also like the fact that China has around 17% interest in TCK.
... agree ... nice call ... been following TCK closely (internally + externally) pre and post (er...ongoing) the "systemic abyss" ... distinct and specific management decision and execution points since Fording, which I arbitrated for a 10K gain just for interest sake ... took a small initial test postion in TCK @ book (TCK.b $24.40cad...post Fording, pre Leyman) ... started in depth fundamental and technical analysis, including insiders, holders, principals and management crisis response ... net net: bought in small test tranches (min 400 to max 1000 units) from Sept 2008 to Mar 2009 ... marking to book daily close Gain/Loss metrics to keep myself on track, only liquidating small subsets to raise cash and book profits (eg. during Jan. 2009 rally) ... lowest tranches March 5th + 6th 2009 ... uptrend: at strategic and tactical decision points management always executed effectively (Temagami Metals + Mining held by Keevil family, Sumimoto M+M, and CEO Don Lindsay stickhandled thru tactical non-core asset sales, oversub'd Bond (re)issue to stabilize LT debt, aggressively attacked ST debt, secured strategic CIC investment (common B class holder only, no voting control) with key commodity customer + import market) ... getting back to your call ... in March 2010 TCK paid down $400+M in Fording related ST debt and a week+ ago indicated April 22 for final $400+M payment closeout ... during April 21st conference call / webcast restated priority eventually reintroduce a conservative divie, but to enjoy growing FCF (15%+), growing production of Met Coal (HCC) (+50% over 3-4 years) and Copper (+40% by 2012), 24-25% LT debt (2014+), with great diversified assets ... since final payment coincided with annual Shareholders meeting in Van., I knew Board would approve divie (started @ 0.40, will growth to a buck over time) ... bought small 200 TCK.b unit test on April 20 before 1Q10 numbers release @ $40.73cad ... target since 4Q09 $52 - 56 cad ... divie puts floor at rising 50ma, buy dips below 21ma ... any summer or macro market selloff, as an ongoing recovery proxy buy long above 200ma (wil1 pay out) ... (currently settled to date $40k gain on TCK.b related trades, currently long 8.2k units (average cost below $10 before gains applied), plus 600 test shares to play with
ReplyDelete(eg. bought 600 @ prints between 32.25 - 35.02 during silly rally-must-be-over Feb selloff ... sold in March resume-rally between 44.75 - 46.75 ... bought 200 test units during pre-release dip April 20 ... agree looking at breakout above recent 46.99? 52w iday high ... cal1 it 47 ... may or may not resist 50+ due to silly round number phobia ... market agreeing, could reach mid-50's and trade range 45-55 cad ... if systemic financial CDO / CDS nonsense abyss doesn't occur, this was a post-$60 stock minimally in 4Q08-1Q09 ... if commodities have any real value, and a preference over fiat currency printing, sovereign debt, and in any reflation / inflation schema are elements needed to run any economy ... Humber River Doug (long winded response but yours was a good call in the face of early sellers in may (which may present summer opportunities for heavy reentry) ... I was tipped off 10 days back when last $400+M ST debt payout coincided with shareholders meeting and inevitably growing FCF% yield ...
also ... P+F uptrend / breakout point + figures to $53 ... for fundamental review follow Greg Barnes analyses (TD Newcrest mining analyst) ... (he has been lagging 3 months behind my re-risk trade, but I knew too much about Teck to not buy long, even during signal Capitulation days (March. 5 - 9, 2009) ... he has had a strong ALB (action list buy) ratings with 52 - 56 targets for quite some time now ... he is always on conference calls and publishing detailed analysis on any and all issues ... he predicted an initial .40 cent div. April 21 ... my point: his objective analysis made his readers and traders lots of money especially if they listened during all the dips and decision points since the summer of 2009 ... and to me confirmed my early albeit risky conviction during 4Q08 - 1Q09 abyss (contrarian buying against trend, and against shorts... my lowest tranch was accumulated between 3.50 - 3.90 at what was in effect an option price with embedded shares attached) ...
ReplyDelete... typo: "... bought small 200 TCK.b unit test on April 20 before 1Q10 numbers release @ $40.73cad ..." purchase was actually at 41.73cad near close of 41.71 on TSX ...
ReplyDeleteThank you for sharing all the information Humber River. It is greatly appreciated and extremely informative to to my readers. Great job accumulating over time and at the right time.
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