Thursday, March 10, 2011

SPX Breaks the Pennant

Here is a quick look at the chart of the SPX. I have been under the weather this week and unfortunately have not been trading. I have my stops in place on the long positions. Do not panic follow your rules and look for key areas of support to hold. With all the turmoil in the middle east this market should continue to be volatile into the coming weeks. I only have on my insurance SPY puts for now and my stops set on my longs which have all been 1/4 to 1/2 size positions. I will update the positions this weekend.

For now I am looking for this current level to hold. The 1294 level on the SPX was the low on 2/24/11 and also January's resistance level. If this level breaks down then I would look for further weakness to the 1280.81 area which is the 127% Fib extension as depicted by the aqua blue lines. That area is also somewhat consistent with 1275ish area that was printed on the Egypt lows back on 1/28/11.

The red line depicts the short term upside resistance. The yellow line depicted the shot term uptrend support. Together they formed a pennant which has been pierced to the downside and might bring further downside resolution to the previously mentioned areas.


SPX Daily Chart


On the weekly chart you can also notice that the the trajectory of the green uptrend line from the August 2010 lows has temporarily been punctured to the downside. This also offers reason to be concerned for a possibility of greater retracement. However, the yellow line that is depicted on the weekly chart does offer some short term support. Again if these areas give way, I would anticipate a further retracement to the lows that were printed on 1/28/11 as a result and reaction of the Egypt crisis


SPX Weekly Chart


Now as we are looking at the weekly, we can see that the dotted green line is a longer term uptrend line of support. Price or time will dictate when and where we will eventually tag that uptrend support line. I am looking for the latter to transpire. I am inherently bullish being an optimist but I have to put my feelings aside and trade what the charts are showing me. If we take out the Egypt lows convincingly then I would look for a further pull back to the April 2010 highs which at one point acted as resistance to be another area of support. That area is identified by the dotted red line and comes in at about 1220 on the SPX. If that is the case I will look for bearish setups, for now I will use the futures to hedge intra-day and short term intra- day shorts.



SPX Weekly Chart

Sunday, March 6, 2011

JDSU, KLAC, MRO, RVBD, AKAM

Here is a link to my thoughts on a couple of other names I am watching for the week.

http://www.screencast.com/t/VOXU7BTo

BHI, BAS, FNSR, HAL, IO, ARUN

Link to a video of some stocks I am watching very closely this week.


http://www.screencast.com/t/FMlzmzql

SPY, QQQQ, IWM, DIA

Link to video on the 4 major market indexes.

http://www.screencast.com/t/2jvDNl2GbtJ

Thursday, March 3, 2011

SPY Close UP and PBR, KO, TSS, SCHN, PCX, KEY

here is a link to a video highlighting todays action

http://www.screencast.com/t/YD9PjmPhF

PBR - apr 41 call stopped out @ 1.35 + .15, still like this name will look to get back in

KO - may 65 call took at piece off @ 1.70s good for 100% gain, stops to 1.00 for now

KEY - jun 10 call took a piece off from yesterdays entry @ .56 + 51% gain, lots of bullish action hitting options today

PCX - apr 25 call took a piece off at 2.04 +.77 still like this name, lowering long exposure

TSS - long may 20 call @ .30

SCHN - long mar 70 call @ .25, 1/4 size looking for 1.50 move in the stock in the next 2 to 3 days

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Major Market Indexes and Today's Entries

Here is a link to a video on todays market action and trades that I took.

http://www.screencast.com/t/Lqe9agZt8

I forgot to mention KEY and DISCA in the video.

I got long the following trades today

ACI jul 35 call @ 2.95
HK jun 23 call @ 1.09 own jan position as well
DISCA apr 45 call @ .50
KEY jun 10 call @ .37
MU apr 12 call @ .43 own jan position as well
PCX apr 25 call @ 1.27
AMAT apr 17 call @ .38
PBR apr 41 call @ 1.20 own across IRAs
OXY apr 105 call @ 2.35

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

SPY, QQQQ, IWM, DIA

Here is a link to a video on the major market indexes,

http://www.screencast.com/t/UP0mfl4m

Monday, February 28, 2011

ADP and VZ

Today I got long

ADP may 50 call @ 1.45 stops are set @ .75 for now

VZ apr 37 call @ .78 and .79 1/4 position, I will look to add another 1/4 if it pulls back to $36.00 or .55 on the call option

watch video link for details

http://www.screencast.com/t/MmM8E2m1

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Stocks to Stalk This Week

ADP
ABX
AMAT
ARUN
BLL
HK
OXY
NGLS
TLM
IEO
SU
XOP
BEXP
XHB
LEN

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Review of the Major Indexes

Here is a link the a video on the major indexes

http://www.screencast.com/t/Hs5dLJow1gz

Mentioned in this video

SPX
QQQQ
IWM
DIA

Review and Update of Option Positions

Here is a link to a video that gives an update to both positions that I am still in and positions I have been stopped out of.

http://www.screencast.com/t/u7BN4xmXn

I forgot to mention MU in the video, I rolled out my apr 9 calls to apr 12 calls. The entry on the MU apr 9 calls were on 1/3/11 @ .57 took some profits at 1.92 and 2.09 at that time I rolled the position to a higher strike getting into the MU apr 12 calls on 2/11/11 for .54. I maintain a bullish bias on MU.

HK, HUN, WMB

Here is a link to the video of the positions I entered on Friday feb 25, 2011

http://www.screencast.com/t/zCj3GCZ8KZY

HK - long jan 2012 30/35 bull call spread @ .44, spec trade

HUN - long apr 18 call @ .75

WMB - long apr 31 call @ .84

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Speculative Trade in HK

Here is a link to the video on what I saw in HK today.



http://www.screencast.com/t/MIfcTxjO

Large lot bought of the HK jan 2012 30/35 call spread

Friday, February 18, 2011

The Results Are In

Hey guys the results are in,

These were the submissions,


Stock Ticker and closing price on 2/4/11

PLCE - $44.14

ROVI - $63.68 * was changed to CREE - $52.69

TSN - $18.56

Stock Ticker and closing Price on 2/18/11


PLCE - $47.06 a $2.92 increase or 6.61%

ROVI - $57.85 a $5.83 loss or - 9.15% *had been changed to CREE

CREE - on 2/4/11 was 52.69 it closed today at 54.68 an increase of $1.99 or 3.776%

TSN - $18.63 an increase of $0.07 or .377%

The winner is,

PLCE with a 6.61% increase.

Congratulations Bluto!

Please e-mail me your Skype information to petevoptions@gmail.com so we can schedule your 1 on 1

Thank you to everyone who participated and once again congratulations Bluto.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

MU, PAY, WFR, FST, OXY, SLB, JBL, KO updates

I have been shaving down some of my long positions. I mentioned last week that the market was not showing any signs of weakness other than everyone thinking we are in need of a pull back. Fortunately I don't care much what people think and for that matter what I think the markets should do. The markets are going to do what they want and don't care how we feel about it. With that being said I have continued to put on long positions in an attempt to stay with the trend.

These positions were entered on 2/10/11

PAY mar 44 call long @ 2.35

FST mar 39 call long @ 1.35

OXY mar 100 call long @ 2.10

SLB may 100 call @ 1.70

JBL mar 22.50 call @ .55

PAY - I have taken a piece off of PAY @ 4.70, today it closed at 6.35, the stock should see 50 where I will take another piece off and continue bringing my stops up. PAY reports 3/1/11 and I will more than likely exit the full position prior to earnings. Current stops are at 4.70

FST - I closed out the rest of FST today as they report on Tuesday morning and the markets are closed Monday. Also, it was showing some weakness today and I wanted to lock in some gains. Closed rest of position at 1.70

OXY - I have been shaving along the way taking pieces off at 3.30, 4.20, and now looking to take more off into further strength. I do believe this one has a possibility of seeing Par. I have brought my stops up to 4.20. Today it closed at 6.35.

SLB - SLB is one of my favorites in this space and we have some time on this one. My price target in the next 3 months is 109.10. However our 100 may call option is now trading at 2.95 from our 1.70 entry. I will look to take a piece off at 3.40 and trail stops from there.

JBL - took a piece off today at 1.20, this chart continues to look very attractive.

WFR - entered 0n 2/11/11 at .50, I got stopped out at .75 on 2/15/11. I had a target of 14.58 which was attained today, but I brought my stops up to lock in a 50% gain when it had pushed up to .90, unfortunately the stock experienced a little give back in the later part of the day and stopped me out @ .75

MU - I entered the apr 9 call on 1/3/11 @ .57, I have since taken profits several times and have also added the apr 12 call strike and the jan 2012 15 call strike which I have taken a piece off as well with a little better than a double. I think MU has a while to run even though it is extended.

KO - was entered on 2/14/11 and I got a fill of .85, some of the Tidetraders got a better fill than I but this one is also looking very, very nice. Currently it is trading at 1.31. My targets are 65.03, 65.88, 66.97, 68.35, and lastly 70.65, not sure if it will make it there, but these are the areas where I will look to shave some of the options off. Stops for now are at .75. I will be adjusting very soon.


WCC and AGCO continue to rock, I see further upside in both, but as I mentioned the liquidity in WCC options is horrible and I will look to shave as the opportunity presents itself ie. when option buyers come in. WCC entry was on 1/5/11 @ 2.40, currently option is trading @ 5.80 by 6.60, you can see the horrible slippage.

As for AGCO, 57.91 is my next upside target. AGCO was entered on 2/15/11 via a mar 55 call @ 1.75, currently it is trading at 3.10. I will look to take a piece off at 3.50 and then trail it up to my target.

On a sour Note I have taken 2 losers in the form of the MCP mar 55/60 call spread that was entered on 2/8/11 at 1.55 and stopped out @ .45
I re-entered a MCP mar 50 call on 2/16/11 @ 3.20 and stopped out today @ 2.60. I just wanted to lighten up my port of longs and also still have exposure in the rare earth names via a REE jul 17.50 call which is currently also in the red.

Today I entered APOL long via a mar 45 call. I have been stalking this one along with other education sector stocks. This got above the 200ma briefly today and I entered the position long. I am looking for a possible attempt at a gap fill from the falling window put in on 10/14/11 off of the earnings report. My entry was triggered off of a 200 ma cross and a 50% retracement form 9/23/10 which came in at 43.70. My targets on this are 46.04, 49.37, and 53.61 which are the 61%, 78% and 100% retracements respectively. I am not any any means what so ever under the impression this stock will move that much in the time frame allotted, however as those targets are hit I will trail my stops up accordingly, and if it keeps trending up at that time I will re-evaluate and see if a roll to a later month is warranted. I have placed my stops on at .50 for now.

Currently there are still many opportunities out there and I will try to continue to capitalize on them. I continue to enter 1/4 to 1/2 size positions as I understand we are extremely lofty. I will look to lighten up the portfolio of longs aggressively as we come into the 1350 to 1365 area on the S&P 500. or get stopped out of positions, which ever happens first. At that time, I will re-evaluate and put together another battle plan.

See these trades live. I post them exactly when I take them in the live chat room at www.tidetraders.com

I also post them on twitter.com and my handle is ptposture1

My twitter posts on entries and exits will decrease substantially starting in March

Sunday, February 13, 2011

KO, TE and CSL

I will be stalking CSL, TE, and KO along with others into the upcoming week. I will post them as usual in the Tidetraders chat room. I am looking to get long some KO may 62.50 Calls @ 2.20 or may 65 calls @ 1.00. On TE I am looking out to may calls as well, I am interested in getting long the 17.50 calls @ .75 to .80

CSL had a nice pop and now has been consolidating via a bull flag type pattern.

I understand the markets are lofty and continue to push up. History has proven February to be a pullback retracement type month and going into Valentine's day and week history shows it to be a bearish week. I have been looking at the major markets and sectors and there is nothing baring any bad news, which has pretty much been shrugged off, that indicates these markets showing weakness. I want to continue to be on the right side of the trend which fortunately I have. I will continue to look and trade bullish setups. I do think we will eventually get a 3 to 8 percent pull back but until the market shows me different I will stay long.

You may also have noticed that I am taking on longer term call options and entering positions quarter to half size.

TIE
SWC
GLW
LVS


the above listed tickers are some others I will be keeping a close eye on for bullish opportunities.

Saturday, February 12, 2011

WFR, MU, HOLX

Friday I added the following Option plays,

WFR mar 14 call @ .50

MU rolled out some apr 9 calls +1.88 from entry on 1/3/11 to apr 12 Calls @ .54, I still own apr 9s, 12s, and jan 2012 15 leaps

HOLX long mar 21 call @ .40 , a spec trade on the FDA approval of the first 3-D mammography device, this Device potentially helps doctors spot more cancerous tumors.

DF added some mar 8 Puts @ .20 to hedge my mar 12 calls, essentially turning the position into a Strangle. I would rather have the 8 puts and 10 calls or better yet the 9 Straddle. I am just trying to hedge the position a bit and will hold through earnings, I paid .30 for the mar 12 calls so my break evens are 7.50 and 12.50 at expiration.

Here is a link to a video covering these entries

http://www.screencast.com/t/aoce4SNP5oI

Thursday, February 10, 2011

PAY, FST, OXY, SLB, JBL

This market continues to be lofty and I understand that. With that in mind I am putting on 1/4 to 1/2 size positions. The trend continues to be up and I will try to be on the right side of the trend as best as I can. Today I entered the following positions.

PAY mar 44 call long @ 2.35

FST mar 39 call long @ 1.35

OXY mar 100 call long @ 2.10

SLB may 100 call @ 1.70

JBL mar 22.50 call @ .55

I will look to add on strength, if it presents itself, especially on the longer dated options may, jun and so forth.

Here is a link to the video covering these positions,

http://www.screencast.com/t/dE1dGsbt

On a side note, the NI jul 20 call that was entered on 1/5/11 @ .25 is currently trading @ .45 -.50. I normally take 70% of a position that doubles, in this case I am looking to add to the position if it closes above 18.93

Sunday, February 6, 2011

Tidetraders Contest Submissions

Hi guys,

Just wanted to post a little update. The contestants that made the cutoff have submitted their stock picks. They are listed here so you all can follow along if you so desire.

Stock Ticker and closing price on 2/4/11

PLCE - $44.14

ROVI - $63.68

TSN - $18.56

The winner will be determined by the percentage change from 2/7/11 till the close on 2/18/11

Good luck to all the contestants.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

TideTraders Subscription

Hey guys,

For those that know me, you are aware that trading is a huge part of my life and my main source of income right now. You are also aware that I hang out in the Tidetraders chat rooms. I try to post most of my trades, or at least most of the option trades I take that do not cause Obligation. I try to limit my posts to options that give you rights and not obligations. The main reason I do this, believe it or not, is because there are many people out there who do not do their own research and may not be aware of the risks they are taking. With that being said, my conscious does not want me to hurt anyone financially. I do not want those who choose to take my trades to ever lose money. I do post both my winners and losers. And believe me guys, I have losers as well, sometimes more than I would like.

The key is money management. I always preach that there is not a book in existence that can teach you about yourself. Your fears, your greed, and monetary value, and what money means to you. You have to identify the type of personality that you have. When I say you have to identify your personality, I mean, your personality as a trader. Are you someone who has to be in and out quickly by scalping because you like that style better or you just do not want to have any money at risk over night and prefer to have a clean slate every morning? Are you someone who likes to day trade positions and give them time to work throughout the day and close all positions out prior to close so you can avoid any overnight swings and again start fresh every morning? Are you the type of trader that likes a slower pace of trading, more relaxed sit back and watch type trader? If so maybe you prefer to employ a swing type trading strategy. Maybe trading is not your main source of income and you have another job. These traders, should consider swing trading positions and maybe looking at types of equities that will allow them to set there stops and let them develop and work for them at a slower pace.

After identifying your personality, you must also ask and understand the risks that personality entails. If you are still not comfortable with those risks, you have not identified your trading personality correctly. Do not care what others think of you. Do not lie to yourself. It is very important that you identify your trading personality correctly otherwise you can not advance to the next level.

When you have identified your trading personality, you can step forward and move to setting up proper money management techniques. A 6 month to 1 year period is recommended to study and hone your trading skills. You do this by paper trading an account as if it were real money. There are some issues with that because emotions are difficult to identify when you do not have real skin in the game. However, you will sharpen your skills, learn the required information including patterns, correlations between multiple trading vehicles, and many other issues that affect the markets. You will learn and understand money management and trading techniques using different types of financial vehicles. You will develop rules based on hours of practice and identifying the indicators and parameters that work and do not work.

When you have completed this personal identification, training, and have built a confidence based on indicators and consistency you should have a solid foundation. Now you are a Rookie, a Newbie or any other name that you can use that describes you as being a new trader or green.

Please do not be in a rush to lose money. Remember, any profession you take on, to be a real professional you have to dedicate yourself and put in many hours of studying verbally, written and practically. I like to use the example of my personal life. For those of you who do not know, I am an airline Captain. I invested years of my life and thousands of hours studying, taking hundreds of written exams, oral examinations, and practical tests including simulators and real airplanes under strict rules and a strict examiners eye. I had to perform under all these rules that are dictated by the FAA and be able to perform and execute within very strict limitations. I did all of this to become a professional, to be one of the best at what I do, to be able to compete with other professionals that may have many more years of experience than me. I did this because I love flying. I did this because I had to in order to fly people around and visit all the countries that I studied as a child.

OK, enough about me, the point that I am getting at is, there are many professionals out there that have been trading the markets for many years and are ready to take your money at any given time. So before you get into a business with experienced seasoned professionals who have been properly taught and trained to take your money you better get your act together and be prepared to put in hundreds if not thousands of hours to be able to compete in this great business we call the Stock Market.


Now for those who hang out in the TideTraders chat rooms, you are aware of the promotion they have going. They have free chat rooms and other chat rooms that include Equities and Forex. In these rooms J-P, Rickster, and the Witch Doctor post their trades live. These guys have greater than 40 years of trading experienced combined and are some of the best at what they do. They are not only traders they are also fantastic educators. You will have weekend updates on the stocks they are going to trade with entries, targets, and stops. During the week they post their entries and exits as they take them. They give you extremely detailed commentaries including the use of charts and videos. The price for this information currently is $24.95. Today at midnight the price will increase to 29.95. In the free rooms you can watch over Rickster's shoulder everyday and watch him trades the S&P E-mini futures and ask all the questions you want throughout the day. In 2009 Rick made over 1,000 points trading the /ES and in 2010 he came in just shy of 1,000 points I believe the final was 937 on the /ES. For those of you who do not know what that equals. Each /ES point is worth $50.00 per contract. So 1,000 points is equivalent to $50,000 if you were just trading 1 contract, $100,000 for 2 contracts and so on. Oh yeah, let me also tell you. He showed all of this live, as he pulls the trigger you can see his monitor and the trades triggering with both the stop and limit orders in place and the contracts he is trading. This information is all live, real and best of all it is FREE!!!

I am a chartered member and am extremely blessed to be considered their friend. Outside of being a chartered member I have no affiliation what so ever with Tidetraders. It is just the best chat room by far to spend some of your time in and get educated and profitable throughout the day.

For those of you who sign up before the price increases tonight from $24.95 to $29.95 a month you will also be entered into a contest to have 5 hours of personal coaching on Options via Skype with me.

I am doing this because I choose to. There is nothing in it for me. I am just thankful for what I have and want to give back.

The entry rules to qualify for the 5 hours of 1 on 1 personal options coaching with me are as follows.

1. You must sign up with TideTraders before midnight tonight Saturday February 5, 2011.

2. Your membership must be for a minimum of 6 months.

3. You must submit a stock of your choice, no options by Sunday night February 6, 2011 no later than 11:59 pm est .

4. Please submit your stock in the comments section below or at petevoptions@gmail.com

5. At the end of the 2 week period and market close on February 18th 2011 the stock the performs the best, percentage wise, will dictate the winner.

6. If there are multiple people who have chosen the same stock I will ask you to choose a second stock and we will go off that percentage.

7. If the second choice stock is the same the procedure will continue until there is a different stock choice.


Please visit www.tidetraders.com for any questions or further details, most importantly you will love the environment, and maybe you might learn a thing or two, and more than likely become more profitable.

Good luck and have a great weekend,

Pete

Monday, January 10, 2011

A Few More Stocks to Stalk this week

I will be keeping a close eye on the following stocks this week for trading opportunities.

AXTI
ATML
AREX
CY
LLTC
LVS
FFIV
MIPS
TMO
TZOO

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Taking a look at the Transports and a focus on Railroads

I mentioned on the Sector review video that we need Transportation to be healthy if the markets are going to continue their bullish treck. A pull back is expected and would be welcomed. In this video I am taking a look at the Rail Roads. I have traded them throughout the year and am currently in a CSX jan 62.50/60 put credit spread which will expire in 12 days and I will likely get to keep the full premium collected as long as the stock remains above 62.50 by expiry.

Ok moving right along. I am really liking,

NSC
UNP
CP
KSU

They are all very attractive on the monthly and weekly charts. KSU is a bit extended on the daily, therefore I will be looking to enter positions long on NSC, UNP, and CP, I will likely take 2 of these and look out to March and May expiration. Please watch the video link below for a better understanding of what I am thinking.

http://www.screencast.com/t/3hj4aTrt

Bullish Look on RRC

I am going to position myself long in RRC using Call Options. I am considering the Feb $45 call for $2.60. I also like the Mar $45 or $46 Calls, which give me a little more time. I do think this chart is set up technically and has a good possibility of attaining $50 in the next 60 to 90 days.

There was a ton of call activity that crossed the tape on Friday January 7th. They were going after the jan and feb strikes. The feb 52.50 saw 5435 contracts traded with a previous Open Interest of 0. So it is evident these were being bought to open. Now keep in mind they can be a hedge if attached with shares sold short.

RRC is in the Natural Gas sector and was downgraded on 1/6/11. Natural Gas prices have been depressed for quite a while now. We have seen a recent push up in Natural Gas prices but keep in mind that there is still an abundance of Natural Gas Supplies.

Aubrey McClendon, is (CHK) Chesapeake Energy's CEO. I consider him to be a sharp individual and a great leader. He invested a ton of his own cash into his company and because of the economic recession, Hedge fund, and Shorts pressuring the stock down, he was forced to sell his common shares because of margin call requirements, taking a large loss I presume. OK, the point I am getting at is, this CEO is confident in his company and its future. He invested a ton of his own cash in his company, which is one of the reasons I like CHK in the Natural Gas sector. Along with it being the largest U.S producer of Natural Gas, it has great management!!

CHK has also hedged about 96% of their Natural Gas production for 2011, Here is an interesting article.http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/01/07/chesapeake-finally-takes-its-foot-off-the-pedal.aspx

With that being said, lets get back to RRC. I mention CHK because I much rather own them or APA for that matter, but I am first and foremost a trader and RRC in my opinion offers a better technical setup at this time. I have enclosed a a video with some technical analysis and my thoughts on RRC.

Here is the link to the Video

http://www.screencast.com/t/iuNK9k0pagRz

Sector Review

Here is a video link to a discussion on Sector review

http://www.screencast.com/t/zPU3duMs

SPY, QQQQ, IWM, DIA

here is a link to a video on the major indexes.

http://www.screencast.com/t/ciEh2xKrt

Saturday, January 8, 2011

January Effects Results

Here are the results of the January Effects trades.

The Results may vary depending on the dates entered and exited as well as execution price. The results listed here are based on an entry of the closing price on Monday December 27,2010 and exiting the trade on Friday January 7, 2011's closing price. I also took 5 of these trades using call options and entered them after December 21,2010. Please feel free to look at the archives under January Effects posted on December 21, 2010


Security - Entry Price - Exit Price - P/L

AONE _ $9.71 _ $9.63 -0.83% Jan 10 Call in @.20 out @ .20

BYD _ $9.98 _ $11.92 +16.27% jan 10 Calls in @.45 out @.90 & 1.80

BPZ _ $4.62 _ $4.95 +6.67% Common Shares

BZ _ $8.15 _ $8.15 Unch Common Shares

FTK _ $4.35 _ $5.14 +15.36% Jan 5 Calls in @.70 out @.80 &.75

GMXR _ $5.56 _ $6.00 +7.33% Common Shares

HOV _ $4.01 _ $4.45 +9.89% Common Shares

LNET _ $4.00 _ $4.47 +10.51% Common Shares

MNKD _ $7.97 _ $8.20 +2.80% Common Shares

PMI _ $3.50 _ $3.74 +6.41% Common Shares

SOMX _ $3.15 _ $3.30 +4.55% Common Shares

SQNM _ $8.13 _ $7.70 -5.58% Jan 5 Calls in @.42 out @.84

SPF _ $4.44 _ $4.78 +7.11% Common Shares

SVU _ $9.26 _ $8.66 -8.08% Jan 9 Calls in @.50 out @1.00 &.80

STP _ $8.16 _ $8.28 +1.45% Common Shares

UTA _ $6.29 _ $6.37 +1.25% Common Shares

YRCW _ $3.71 _ $3.41 -8.80% Jan 4 Calls in @.24 & .14 out @.07



Largest % winner not including Call Options BYD + 16.27%

Largest % loser not including Call Options YRCW -8.80%

Total P/L not including Call Options +7.49%




6 total Call options



4 Winners

BYD
FTK
SQNM
SVU




1 Loser

YRCW



1 Break Even

AONE

Thursday, January 6, 2011

CRUS

I picked up a long March 17 call in CRUS today. The charts look very constructive and I am getting long CRUS as a derivative play going into AAPL earnings. I think this offers a low risk entry with a possibility of retracing to this past July's highs @ 21.20.


Weekly ToS Chart of CRUS





Daily ToS Chart of CRUS





Here is a link to a short video on CRUS


http://www.screencast.com/t/ey0MKlZHrF

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

PCX, AMD, BYD, CE, SID, NI, CSC, WCC

NI is in Diversified Utilities

Back on December of 2006 it put in a high of 28.03. I am taking a look at a Fibonacci study from that time frame using a monthly chart. I also am looking at the weekly and break it down to a close up of the daily. I am looking at this Using the monthly and weekly as I do all positions before breaking it down to the daily, 30 min, 10 min, 5min. For longer term positions I emphasize on longer time frames and since this is a July 20 Call option, I do just that. I use the daily and shorter tie frames to establish an entry. I picked up these call options today @ .25

With that being I have a 6 month target of the 78% retracement from the 2006 highs which comes in @ 23.70. The 61.8% retracement comes in at 20.30 and the measured move target from the recent Inverse Head & Shoulders comes in at 18.50.

So my targets are as follows,

First target 18.50
Second Target 20.30
Third Target 23.70
And Ultimately it would be nice to retrace the full 28.03, but I am not expecting that, but will manage it as time progresses.


NI Monthly ToS Chart



NI Weekly ToS Chart





Close up on the NI Daily ToS Chart





WCC is in the Industrial Equipment Wholesale space

In the summer of 2006 WCC traded at a high of 80.29. I am taking a look at the monthly, weekly, and down to the daily. This has had a great run in the last 4 months and it is now bumping up at the 61.8% retracement of the May 2006 highs which comes in at 53.82. This Fibonacci level is usually a level for pause or a possible pull back. I entered the April 55 Call option at 2.40 today with the expectation that this will continue higher and push up to at least the 78% retracement at the 65.46 level.

WCC Monthly ToS Chart






WCC Weekly ToS Chart





WCC Daily Tos Chart


Even though it is a bit extended on the Monthly I chose to enter this position today after seeing bullish activity on the options. Also, if you take a close look at the daily here you can see, it has a nice uptrend in tact and it has pulled back a bit to previous resistance level which looks to be acting as support as depicted by the horizontal red line and the green uptrend line. That gives me 2 probabilities that favor a low risk long entry.




CSC is in the Information Technology Sector

The Monthly chart is looking very constructive and one can identify an Inverted Head and Shoulders type pattern. The weekly chart also has a chart pattern of a more recent Inverted Head & Shoulders. It is at an area of resistance here and it might consolidate which would also be welcomed and would be fine as long as the uptrend line stays intact. On the weekly, you can see that there is a longer term uptrend line in tact and also in the last couple of months another shorter term higher angle uptrend is being formed. These uptrend lines are depicted by the dotted green lines. The Inverted Head and shoulders is also easily identified on the daily chart. It is at an area of resistance here. Great volume has been poring into this name. You can notice that on the days we push up volume surges. The last couple of days have seen very good volume and I feel if the 52 level can get taken out, there should be blue skies up to 54 followed by 55.
I have positioned myself to profit from a push up by the way of purchasing June 55 Call options. I paid 2.00 and 2.03 were my fills. The implied volatility is a bit juiced @ 26.63 in comparison to a Historical Value of 18.63. With a Vega of .13 the position can loose quite a bit with a volatility crush. ex. if the IV 26.63 falls to HV of 18.63, that would be a 8 point drop. You multiply those 8 points by the Vega of .13 and that gives you 1.04. So a Volatility crush would cripple the position by 50%. For this reason I took a small position and will evaluate methods for hedging the position if it starts going against me.

CSC Monthly ToS Chart





CSC Weekly ToS Chart





CSC Daily ToS Chart






Here is a link to the video

http://www.screencast.com/t/ypygYR0VSWNi

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

GNK

There was some interesting bullish action hitting the February 14 calls today.

Here is a link to a video with my thoughts and analysis.

http://www.screencast.com/t/enS3KYDn5FL

ATPG, BYD, GGB, MIPS, NFLX, NTAP, YRCW

Here is a link to the Video

http://www.screencast.com/t/GqYyxpiuHvh

Monday, January 3, 2011

MTW, WFT, BAX

I saw some very interesting option activity in MTW, WFT, and BAX. I will be stalking these names tomorrow and setting alerts on both down and upside. I will look to accumulate these names throughout the year as long as they stay intact technically.


here is a link to the video with my thoughts,

http://www.screencast.com/t/eoBBULz0

ATPG, BYD, FTK, NTAP, SQNM, SVU, YRCW update

Here is a link to the video,

http://www.screencast.com/t/VfgfKoxQ

Sunday, January 2, 2011

DNDN, HK, NFLX, NTAP, YRCW

Here is a video link to a couple of trades that are currently in the red and a couple of losers that got stopped out.

http://www.screencast.com/t/an82GJNm


DNDN Jan 38 Call, entry .88 stopped out @ .50 for a .38 loss

HK Jan 19 Call, entry .80, stopped out @ .32 for a -.48 loss

NTAP Jan 55 call , still long, currently in the red

NFLX jan 190/200 call spread, still long , currently in the red

YRCW Jan 4 Call, still long, currently in the red

FTK

FTK Video Link

http://www.screencast.com/t/3kede0zcSXRU

FTK Daily Prophet Chart



FTK 30 min Prophet Chart



FTK 10 min Prophet Chart

SQNM

SQNM Video Link

http://www.screencast.com/t/y7NpMIA0L8s

SQNM Daily Prophet Chart




SQNM 30 min Prophet Chart

SVU

SVU Video Link

http://www.screencast.com/t/WIjUXS1wi819

SVU Daily Prophet Chart



SVU 30 min Prophet Chart

BYD

BYD Video Link

http://www.screencast.com/t/q80r7ndErPbH

BYD Daily Prophet Chart



BYD 30 day 30 Min Prophet Chart

ATPG

ATPG Video Link


http://www.screencast.com/t/ZA3JheNyPdaN


ATPG Weekly Prophet Chart



ATPG Daily Prophet Chart



ATPG Prophet Chart,
closer look at the daily



ATPG 30 Day/30 Min Prophet Chart


AONE

AONE Video Link

http://www.screencast.com/t/cOiH19nLM


AONE Daily Prophet Chart

AMD

AMD Video Link

http://www.screencast.com/t/tyXOJlyL


AMD Weekly Prophet Chart



AMD Daily Prophet Chart