Ugly Day, Stay Away

Just wanted to get a quick video out on the major indexes and cover some market posture. This is a fantastic time to Sit on Hands (SOH). We should expect market volatility of this 3 figure nature in the DJIA and several point percentage moves in most financial instruments for weeks to come.

If you are not a professional I would insist that you use this time to raise cash and sit on the sidelines. Don't misunderstand me, this is a great time to be a intra-day trader, but even those individuals can get their chops licked in this environment.

After the "Flash Crash", May 6th action, we saw, it further confirmed our thoughts to get hedged and use great caution. That day I got stopped out of most of my long positions and posted a couple of videos with ways to benefit from a down market. You can find those thoughts and videos in the archives. They were posted on May 10th and May 12th. This video link is a review of those positions and just forward looking thoughts.

Please be cautious in this environment. I anticipate we get a snap back rally but much over head supply should mute the bulls. Take this time to possibly sell longs into strength and further accumulate a CASH position.

http://www.screencast.com/t/MTlhNmRlYW

Good Time to be a Hunter

We might see some further weakness. Do not lose focus or throw all your cards in. These times are great to sit on hands and look for great setups on stocks that we have been wanting to get into for a long time and the market just did not let us. Remember, one must be vigilant and trade what the market gives us, also remember that the market tends to try to prove as many people wrong as possible. With that being said, as everyone is starting to talk about getting short, don't be surprised if the market does not surprise once again. This is a good time to tighten up stops and look for low risk entries. Just remember the Volatility is a bit inflated which means we should see large swings. If you can not handle the volatility, do one of two things, trade smaller lots or sit on the sidelines and wait for the volatility to subside.

Observations on the Major Indexes

Here is a link to a quick video on the Major Market Indexes
http://www.screencast.com/t/OGMzNWZiZ

ES Futures Trade Update

I got stopped out of my /ES Futures trade this morning as the markets continued to sell off. -4 points.

ES Futures Trade

Getting long the /ES futures here @ 1148 @ 5:07 est. With the $TRIN closing over 2. I will look for a morning push up I have stops set @ 1144 for now risking 4 points.

AUY Option, Turning it into a Guaranteed Winner

Here is a link to turning our AUY jun 11 calls into a vertical spread, opening up some different options for us and making this trade a win win scenario. No matter what it will always be a winner.

Here is the link to the video

http://www.screencast.com/t/YjdkOTc1YWYt

A Couple Of Position Updates

Hey Tidetraders who followed me on RRI and all, I am shaving a piece off the RRI my 4 calls we entered Tuesday @ .15 and .20. I have shaved some off @ .45 here and looking for further upside in this. Bringing stops on the rest to .30.

Options Chain provided by TOS




HOC

I noticed some nice activity on the Jun 30 call strike, here is a Chart and an Options Chain provided by TOS



I added HOC jun 30 calls @ .85



TPX

We have traded this name several times before and it is back in that channel on the daily. I have also noticed some interesting Call activity in the name.

I added a small position of the jun 40 calls @ .70 will look to add if it pulls back to the bottom of the channel

Here is a Chart showing the channel and Option Chain provided provided by TOS






Remember, you can follow my trades live on Twitter, Stocktwits, and Tidetraders.com

Quick Market overview

Here is a link to a quick market overview of the major indexes and some previously mentioned ETF's to benefit from if the market does decide to decline.

http://www.screencast.com/t/NzBjOWFiODQ

Quick Recap of the Major Indexes

Here is a video link to some market recap of the major indexes and some ETF's that were mentioned in previous posts if the market does decide to turn to the downside.

http://www.screencast.com/t/NzBjOWFiODQ

Positions that Stopped us out

Here is a video link on positions I recently got stopped out of.

http://www.screencast.com/t/Y2U1MTg5

Stocks mentioned in this video include, V, HNZ, TCK, BA, and HLIT

Stopped out V +100% first 1/2 and 50% on 2nd 1/2

Stopped out HNZ - 50% on the 47/50 call spread

Stopped out TCK @ 40.00, - 1.50

stopped out BA @ 67.00, -4.00

Stopped out HLIT @ 6.00 -1.00

Also not mentioned in the video I got stopped out XTEX @ 10.00 for a 1.50 loss from last entry @ 11.50

Update to MED position

Here is a video link to the MED position we took back on 3/26/10, this is an update and my current thoughts on it.

http://www.screencast.com/t/MjVmMWJmODY

Here is a link provided by Stocktwits TV of when we entered the MED position

http://www.stocktwits.tv/talk-your-book-with-dr-phil-pearlman-040110/

Updates on some Gold positions

I shaved another piece off the GG jul 45 calls @ 3.60 today for +2.40 gainer. I have moved my stops up to 2.40 on the rest. Our entry was an avg. of 1.20 on this position.

I also shaved another piece off of SA +7 points, brought stops up to $33.00 for now. I might consider selling some covered calls in my IRA on this position or collar it up. Need to take a closer look at the options for this.

I am still holding and added to make full positions in IAG, CDE, and AUY common.

I added to my AUY jun 11 calls yesterday payed up and brought my basis up to .50. I will look to take 1/2 off this position @ 1.00, it came very close today but I did not get filled, so for those who took this with me keep that in mind, rule of thumb, ya gotta shave some off at a double. I don't care what anyone tells ya!!!

I also added some EGO jul 19 calls @ .75 today

Bullish Activity in MUR

I noticed some bullish activity in MUR today. The thing that caught my eye was the fact that investors are going after the out of the money calls on MUR for the front month. The may 60 calls were purchased between .25 and .35 per contract. With 10 days left and 9 after tonight, these call buyers are looking for some movement to come quickly in this name. The strike does have a Delta of .16 which would be about a 50% gainer if the stock moves up $1.00. The Implied Volatility is fairly priced when compared to the Historical Volatility. The stock needs to close above $60.25 to $60.35 depending on what the premium paid was. If the position is held to expiration the investor will need the stock to move up 8.2% or $4.57 from today's close price of $55.78.

MUR Option Chain, provided by TOS



There was also some action that crossed the tape on the Jun strikes. I like the fact that the IV is below the HV here, so the option is not juiced yet. I will keep an eye on this position and look to possibly enter the Jun 60 call @ 0.90 to 0.95. With a Delta of .26 and a favorable IV to the buyer.

MUR Trade Break Down, provided by Livevol



MUR Option Action, provided by Livevol




MUR reported EPS on 5/5/10 and missed estimates coming in at 0.77 vs. 0.99, this started the selling and then Thursdays and Fridays action continued to push down.
This might be a case of bottom fishing or maybe something else brewing here. At any rate the daily looks like it is setting up for an Inverse H&S pattern which could push MUR back up to the $60.00 area, it will have to contend with the 50 and 200 MA and also the action in the Crude market but I feel it is one to keep on your watch list.

I also like the fact that Crude appears to be at a good area of support. The daily on the crude can be classified as a bear flag and might find further weakness to the 70 level. If that happens and I am in the position more than likely I will get stopped out. I will keep this in mind and see if we get a lift in Crude, also keep in mind how the U.S Dollar trades as it should affect Crude. If the dollar pulls back a bit we can see Crude find a bid.

MUR daily Chart, provided by TOS



I will update if I enter a position in this name.

Large lot of SPY jul Put Spreads

Saw a large lot of SPY 112/102 bear Put Spread cross the tape at 1:46 est. 1 investor put on this spread via 39,000 contracts.

TOS July options chain for the SPY




Info provided by LiveVol

Major Index Recap and Outlook

I did anticipate a relief Rally, just not this strong this fast. The weekend news on the European Relief Plan did not solve any issues but looks like it cleared up some uncertainty. Here is a link covering the major indexes.
http://www.screencast.com/t/YTgzYThkODU

/ES closing out the last piece

Looks like we have tired some, and to tell you the truth I did not anticipate such a massive push. Might be forming a possible H&S here and I got real lucky catching this move so gonna take my chips off the table and walk away with a real nice winner. Closing out the last piece here @ 1156.50. If 1152 gives way, I will look at it again at the 1148 area to see if it holds.

Long 2 /ES contreact s @ 1136.50

Getting long 2 /ES contracts @ 1136.50 @ 11:20 pm est tonight stops are @ 1133 for now and shaving 1/2 off @ 1146.50 if we get there. Think this whole IMF bail out which in reality is not really new news, should give us a real nice push.

Weekend Update for 5/09/10

Video link to 4 of 4
http://www.screencast.com/t/YjEwOTQwZ

Weekend Update for 5/09/10

Here is the link to video 3 of 4

http://www.screencast.com/t/YmNhMGM3

Weekend Update for 5/09/10

Here is the link to the 2nd of 4 videos,

http://www.screencast.com/t/MTc3NDE1

Weekend Update for 5/09/10

Here is the link to the first of 4 videos.

http://www.screencast.com/t/NDI4ODhmZj

Hi guys, hope you all had a great weekend and Mother'd Day

I recorded some videos earlier today and had to do some of them over. I am having issues with my recording software and once they are resolved I will get the video links posted on here. Thank you for you patience.

BPOP update

I have shaved off most of the position but am still holding some of the Jul 3 call strike options. Today however, there have been over 19,700 contracts traded on the front month may 3.50 puts. The Chart is starting to roll over a bit here and looks like it might pull back to the 3.25 area. The volume is lighter on this pull back though. We still have time in this position and technically it is a free trade as we have shaved off several times including a piece at 300% . i will continue to hold some of the position and maybe add on a pull back to the 3.25 area, depending on how the markets are doing at the time and how BPOP is doing. Currently I have my stops on the remaining position on a close below the 50MA.


BPOP daily


BPOP Option Chain intra-day

IWM and QQQQ

The IWM which has led this rally for several months, closely followed by the QQQQ's are lagging this sell off when compared to the SPY and DIA. They are also very close to the 38.2% retracement form February low's though. If they catch up to the SPY's and DIA's sell off which would see January's highs, there is still room to the downside 5% on the IWM and about 2.5% on the QQQQ's respectively.


IWM


QQQQ

Markets at sensitive areas of Support here

The SPY and the DIA have pulled back to sensitive areas of support. These levels also coincide with the 38.2% Fibo retracement which come in at the 107.15 level on the DIA and 115.42 on the SPY. These levels should hold and might offer some buying opportunities. Although if these levels give out the bulls can experience further pain.



SPY


DIA

CAL & UAUA update

Continental Airlines did not get the spike I was looking for. The deal ended up being a stock deal that gave every Continental share holder 1.05 UAUA shares. I got stopped out the rest of the jun 21 calls for a nice gain, stopped out of the 24 and 25 calls for a small loss.

Continental and United set to Merge

Continental and United set to release merger deal information on Monday. I mentioned this in a previous Video post. Appears to be an all stock deal, for those who took the CAL jun 21, 24, and 25 call options with me. We are in the green handsomely in these positions and looks like the deal will be finalized by the 4th Quarter. Appears that Continental share holders will get 1.5 United shares. When I get back into town this week I will review and calculate our positions to see how we might benefit best. Here is a quick link to some news on the merger.


http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/03/business/03merger.html?hp