CDE is also Looking Attractive

CDE is in the Silver and Gold space and should benefit as well with a push in Gold. Technically this chart is set up very nicely. We can see that CDE is trying to break away from the downward trend it had been in for a couple of months. It looks to have formed a base and is now trying to get going. It does have some work to do with a couple of areas of resistance depicted by the Light Blue lines. The second light blue line identified by the letter B also coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement,the 200 SMA, and the Left Shoulder. If that area can get taken out I can see CDE push to the NL Measured Move around $21 which is right by the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement area and possibly attempt a full 100% Retracement. We are also starting to see volume generally accumulate as of late on the up days, so keep an eye on volume for confirmation of the move as well, it can show conviction.

If this stock can clear the the first light blue line depicted A, I will put on a starter position with an initial stop below the lows of 4/19/10 @ 15.75. I will look to add to the position if it makes it through the second light blue line depicted by letter B which also comes in at the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement, the 200 SMA, and also the Left shoulder area.

If my thesis is correct I will trail my stops up as the position starts moving the way I think it can

NL = Neck Line
L = Left Shoulder
H = Head
R = Right Shoulder

Initial Risk = roughly !.25
Possible reward $4.00 to $8.00, the latter being if we retrace the full 100% of course

Taking a look at GG for a possible long trade

I like GG here because it seems to be mirroring the Gold Futures (/GC) ticker on TOS. You can see in the chart it also is very close to the 61.8% Retracement from the December highs and has and Inverted Head & Shoulders as well. Lately it is putting in an Ascending Triangle making higher lows. The Inverse H&S is roughly 9 pts. from the neckline to the head. The breakout occurred and failed momentarily but it looks to be finding legs again. We can see that from the Right Shoulder Push marked by letter A ( which is also known as an AB leg) it then consolidated via a bull flag depicted by the White lines ( also known as a BC leg). Now I will look for a measured move as depicted by the Green B line (also known as the CD Extension) which also brings the price action up to aprox. the 78% Fibo Retracement. I am looking to enter this position @ $41.00 with an initial stop at $38.00 for now.

If my thesis is correct, we can see this name possibly retrace the full 100% from the December highs which will come in at $46.24 followed by the full measured move depicted by the inverse H&S at about the $48ish area.

My targets if the position triggers.

Fibonacci 78% Retracement = 1st Target $43.37
Fibonacci 100% Retracement = 2nd Target $46.24
Inverse H&S Measured Move = 3rd Target $48ish
Fibonacci 127% Extension = 4th Target $49.86

Stop out will be set @ $38 initially if the trade triggers

Risk = $3.00
Possible reward = $8.00 to $9.00

I will also trail the stops up as the position becomes profitable.

NL = Neck Line
L = Left Shoulder
H = Head
R = Right Shoulder

/GC Fibonacci Study

Looking at the Gold futures we can see that after pushing through the neckline mentioned on the Inverse H&S chart and also seen here, 1,170.7 was printed as a high on 4/12/10. Gold retreated partly due to the strengthening Dollar when the Greece news hit.

Taking a look at the Fibonacci study here we can see some levels to aim for and use as a guide. We can see that Gold looks to be finding some support and getting a Bid here. I would anticipate 1,170.7 to be the first level of some pause or resistance if Gold does get going higher here. If the highs put in on 4/12/10 of 1,170.7 get taken out, look for 1193 to be an area Gold can accelerate to which comes in at the 127% Fibonacci extension followed by the 161.8% extension of 1,223.8 which comes very close to the all time highs printed on 12/03/09 of 1,227.5. I am also looking at the measured move depicted by the Green line marked A when super imposed and depicted by the Green line marked B to push Gold up to roughly the same area as the 161.8 Fibonacci extension.

I like this particular setup because it sets up several probabilities in the favor of a bullish outlook on Gold.

Keep in mind if This can fail and if Gold pulls back and puts in lower lows, we will have to go back to the drawing book to construct a new plan.

The safest and most conservative approach to enter a long position would more than likely be to wait until the April 12th highs of 1,170.7 highs get taken out.

In closing I would like to say, always keep an eye on the Dollar as historically it tends to affect commodities and Gold falls under that category.

Inverse Head and Shoulders on /GC

Here is a chart of the /GC Gold Futures. I am seeing an inverse H&S formation.

L= left shoulder
H= Head
R= right shoulder
NL= neck line

There is roughly 110 points worth if we do see a measured move.

Outlook on Gold

Hey guys here is a video of my out look on gold. I will try to get some more information out with the specific stocks I am setting buy stop bracket orders on before I leave for the week.

I will also try to get more information out on some Energy stocks I am stalking as my bias remains bullish in the Energy sector.

Here is a link to the video,

http://www.screencast.com/t/NmY1NDg4

Possibly a good area to go Bottom Feeding on MOS or just stalking it for a Break Down

MOS looks to be at a low risk entry here. This $53 area acted as resistance from roughly mid May of 2009 until it finally gave way in November of 2009. That area since then has acted as support when the market pulled back in January of 2010 and put in a bottom in February as outlined by the magenta circle, it pushed back up and now found its way back to that previous resistance area which has acted as support once before. It is also right at the 200 MA. This offers a great entry with low risk to reward as you will know in short order if you are wrong or not. The stop can be placed in the area outlined by the red rectangle or however you see fit depending on your risk appetite. Now if it gets moving up, it can find some challenges pushing through as it has several obstacles to overcome, including a down trend line depicted by the dotted green line, the 50 MA, and eager sellers in the I want my money back camp.

One can also argue and say there is a Head & Shoulders pattern in place as depicted by the light blue ovals and take a bearish bias. From the Head to the Neckline we are looking at roughly 14 points, so if Agriculture stocks continue to weaken and the market decides to pull back some this might be one to watch for a break of the Neckline. If this support area does give way, you can look to short this name with the first target and possible area of support coming in at the $44.25 area as depicted by the orange ovals and if that gives way, a complete measured move down to the $38.80ish area which is depicted as an area of support by the white oval.

I personally am not shorting this market at the time, but thought I would share an interesting perspective that can be taken from both sides with limited risk.

TCK nice looking setup

TCK is giving us a real nice entry here with risk defined. Previous resistance put in on the January highs and March highs finally gave way when the stock broke out late March. This stock has been trading in a nice upward channel and has now pulled back to previous resistance area which now looks to be acting as support, also the bottom of the uptrend channel offers support along with the 50 day moving average. With that being said I have added a position in this name today with a stop set at $40 for now. I will look for a push to $46.50 and then $50 to $52, market participating of course. This company is based in Vancouver, BC and is engaged in mining, exploration, development, processing, smelting and refining. Its major products are metallurgical coal, copper and zinc. The Company also produces precious metals, lead, molybdenum, electrical power, fertilizers and various specialty metals. Metal products are sold as refined metals or concentrates. It also owns an interest in certain oil sands leases, and has a partnership interest in an oil sands development project. TCK is involved in copper, coal, zinc, and energy. I also like the fact that China has around 17% interest in TCK.