MOS looks to be at a low risk entry here. This $53 area acted as resistance from roughly mid May of 2009 until it finally gave way in November of 2009. That area since then has acted as support when the market pulled back in January of 2010 and put in a bottom in February as outlined by the magenta circle, it pushed back up and now found its way back to that previous resistance area which has acted as support once before. It is also right at the 200 MA. This offers a great entry with low risk to reward as you will know in short order if you are wrong or not. The stop can be placed in the area outlined by the red rectangle or however you see fit depending on your risk appetite. Now if it gets moving up, it can find some challenges pushing through as it has several obstacles to overcome, including a down trend line depicted by the dotted green line, the 50 MA, and eager sellers in the I want my money back camp.
One can also argue and say there is a Head & Shoulders pattern in place as depicted by the light blue ovals and take a bearish bias. From the Head to the Neckline we are looking at roughly 14 points, so if Agriculture stocks continue to weaken and the market decides to pull back some this might be one to watch for a break of the Neckline. If this support area does give way, you can look to short this name with the first target and possible area of support coming in at the $44.25 area as depicted by the orange ovals and if that gives way, a complete measured move down to the $38.80ish area which is depicted as an area of support by the white oval.
I personally am not shorting this market at the time, but thought I would share an interesting perspective that can be taken from both sides with limited risk.
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