Back on December of 2006 it put in a high of 28.03. I am taking a look at a Fibonacci study from that time frame using a monthly chart. I also am looking at the weekly and break it down to a close up of the daily. I am looking at this Using the monthly and weekly as I do all positions before breaking it down to the daily, 30 min, 10 min, 5min. For longer term positions I emphasize on longer time frames and since this is a July 20 Call option, I do just that. I use the daily and shorter tie frames to establish an entry. I picked up these call options today @ .25
With that being I have a 6 month target of the 78% retracement from the 2006 highs which comes in @ 23.70. The 61.8% retracement comes in at 20.30 and the measured move target from the recent Inverse Head & Shoulders comes in at 18.50.
So my targets are as follows,
First target 18.50
Second Target 20.30
Third Target 23.70
And Ultimately it would be nice to retrace the full 28.03, but I am not expecting that, but will manage it as time progresses.
NI Monthly ToS Chart
NI Weekly ToS Chart
Close up on the NI Daily ToS Chart
WCC is in the Industrial Equipment Wholesale space
In the summer of 2006 WCC traded at a high of 80.29. I am taking a look at the monthly, weekly, and down to the daily. This has had a great run in the last 4 months and it is now bumping up at the 61.8% retracement of the May 2006 highs which comes in at 53.82. This Fibonacci level is usually a level for pause or a possible pull back. I entered the April 55 Call option at 2.40 today with the expectation that this will continue higher and push up to at least the 78% retracement at the 65.46 level.
WCC Monthly ToS Chart
WCC Weekly ToS Chart
WCC Daily Tos Chart
Even though it is a bit extended on the Monthly I chose to enter this position today after seeing bullish activity on the options. Also, if you take a close look at the daily here you can see, it has a nice uptrend in tact and it has pulled back a bit to previous resistance level which looks to be acting as support as depicted by the horizontal red line and the green uptrend line. That gives me 2 probabilities that favor a low risk long entry.
CSC is in the Information Technology Sector
The Monthly chart is looking very constructive and one can identify an Inverted Head and Shoulders type pattern. The weekly chart also has a chart pattern of a more recent Inverted Head & Shoulders. It is at an area of resistance here and it might consolidate which would also be welcomed and would be fine as long as the uptrend line stays intact. On the weekly, you can see that there is a longer term uptrend line in tact and also in the last couple of months another shorter term higher angle uptrend is being formed. These uptrend lines are depicted by the dotted green lines. The Inverted Head and shoulders is also easily identified on the daily chart. It is at an area of resistance here. Great volume has been poring into this name. You can notice that on the days we push up volume surges. The last couple of days have seen very good volume and I feel if the 52 level can get taken out, there should be blue skies up to 54 followed by 55.
I have positioned myself to profit from a push up by the way of purchasing June 55 Call options. I paid 2.00 and 2.03 were my fills. The implied volatility is a bit juiced @ 26.63 in comparison to a Historical Value of 18.63. With a Vega of .13 the position can loose quite a bit with a volatility crush. ex. if the IV 26.63 falls to HV of 18.63, that would be a 8 point drop. You multiply those 8 points by the Vega of .13 and that gives you 1.04. So a Volatility crush would cripple the position by 50%. For this reason I took a small position and will evaluate methods for hedging the position if it starts going against me.
CSC Monthly ToS Chart
CSC Weekly ToS Chart
CSC Daily ToS Chart
Here is a link to the video
http://www.screencast.com/t/ypygYR0VSWNi
so you have a nicely organized site...but missing one crucial part...where is your performance grid??
ReplyDeletewithout being able to see any past performace info, you future picks carry exactly ZERO weight...monkeys at a dartboard could be picking them...the only thing that will make your picks and this site relevent are performance numbers...
anyway, best of luck to you...hope you make your
Hello Menriquez.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the input, it is greatly appreciated and makes tons of sense. However, this Blog is mainly for my thoughts and not buy or sell recommendations, as I am not a licensed broker dealer. I do post about 50% of my trades on Twitter with both entries and exits with profits and losses.
The reason I only post about 50% of my trades is because I am a big seller of options, and as a seller one does not have rights but has obligations. I do not want anyone who does not fully understand the risks behind selling options to get hurt financially if they choose to follow my trades.
Because of time restraints I have not been able to dedicate much time to my Blog. I am working on a new Blog which will incorporate both charts and a direct feed to video content, so one does not have to copy and paste the links. Please feel free to read my disclosures as they dictate that my thoughts and trade setups are not recommendations, but solely for educational purposes and for me to track and keep myself both aware and humble of the trades I take, be they winners or losers. If you would like, you can see some of the trades I take on both Twitter and Stocktwits.com which offer both entries, guidance, and exits with profit and loss information.
You have an excellent point and hopefully one day if the demand is there and time allows it, I will structure a more user friendly Blog with both entry, exits, and a track record of both profits and losses on the trades I take. I also encourage you to log on to www.tidetraders.com. This is a free chat room where I spend time in during the day and give exact entries, targets, and stops on the trades that I take.
I hope this has been helpful and once again thank you for your thoughts.
Pete